Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
